As the NFL Divisional Round approaches, many wagering enthusiasts will find themselves trying to answer the age-old question: who triumphs in a contest between an unstoppable force and an immovable object?
Consider James Cook of the Buffalo Bills. The NFL’s leading rusher in the regular season, Cook was contained in the wild-card round by Jacksonville’s league-best rush defence, amassing only 46 yards on the ground. On paper, it doesn’t seem likely to get much easier for Cook this coming Saturday: Denver boasted the NFL’s second-best rush defence during the regular season.
So, who wins in this battle of best against almost-best? At BetMGM, Cook is listed as a +180 underdog to gain 100 or more rushing yards. But he’s also -150 to hit the 75-yard mark. Meanwhile, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is considered a +220 longshot to tally 50 yards or more on the ground (something he’s done three times this season).
Denver isn’t the only stout defence that will be suiting up this weekend. Houston and Seattle — the league’s two top teams in fewest points allowed — will be trying to prove the adage that defence wins championships.
The Texans, who allowed the fewest yards per game of any NFL defence in 2025, gave up only 112 passing yards against Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in a convincing wild-card victory. Now they must confront a Patriots attack led by QB — and MVP candidate — Drake Maye, who’s averaging 259 passing yards per game.
Who wins this version of unstoppable vs. immovable? BetMGM has Maye listed as a +125 underdog to reach 250 passing yards. Advantage: Texans. That said, BetMGM has also set the over-under on Maye’s passing attempts at 29.5, which is slightly above his season average. Bettors who hold the Texans’ defence in the highest esteem may be interested to note that Maye — playing in only his second playoff game — is -105 to throw at least one interception.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, come off a first-round bye to face a dinged-up San Francisco team. Seattle is favoured in the game by 7.5 points, by far the highest margin on the board this weekend. Defence is a big part of the reason. At BetMGM, Niners running back Christian McCaffrey is a +210 underdog to reach 75 rushing yards and, at +125, QB Brock Purdy is seen as more likely than not to throw for fewer than 250 yards.
More interested in betting on someone surpassing their over-under? Seattle superstar receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba — facing a depleted Niners defence — is +200 at BetMGM to record 125 or more receiving yards. That may seem like a lot (it is a lot!), but Smith-Njigba put up 123 or more receiving yards in six of 17 games this season, including a September matchup against these 49ers.
This year’s Divisional Round will be where narratives collide. Elite defences will aim to dictate tempo and force mistakes, while star playmakers look for the one or two moments that can flip a game — and a betting slip. That tension is exactly what creates opportunity, especially in player props, where a single adjustment, matchup wrinkle, or game script shift can matter as much as season-long trends.
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